Showing posts with label 2012 general. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2012 general. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Final Ballot, Post-Mortem

Now that the election's over*, how did I do? Not well on candidates, but far better on the issues.

Out of 16 races with more than one candidate, the one I voted for won in only three of them. Kim Wyman's victory for Secretary of State is particularly narrow, only ~14k. If she holds onto it, however, she would be the only Republican to hold statewide office. In District 40, Jeff Morris defeated the only non-presidential third-party candidate on my ballot, the Green party's Howard Pellett.

Candidates
U.S. President: Gary Johnson (Libertarian), VP James P. Gray
U.S. Senator: Michael Baumgartner (R)
U.S. Representative: Dan Matthews (R)
WA Governor: Rob McKenna (R)
WA Lieutenant Governor: Bill Finkbeiner (R)
WA Secretary of State: Kim Wyman (R)
WA State Treasurer: Sharon Hanek (R)
WA State Auditor: James Watkins (R)
WA Attorney General: Reagan Dunn (R)
WA Commissioner of Public Lands: Clint Didier (R)
WA Superintendent of Public Instruction: Write-in, Luisa Rey
WA Insurance Commissioner: John R. Adams (R)
WA State Senator, District 40: John Swapp (Ind-R)
WA State Representative, District 40, Position 1: Write-in, Rufus Sixsmith
WA State Representative, District 40, Position 2: Jeff Morris (D)
WA Supreme Court Justice, Position 2: Write-in, Adam Ewing
WA Supreme Court Justice, Position 8: Write-in, Timothy Cavendish
WA Supreme Court Justice, Position 9: Richard B. Sanders
WA Court of Appeals Judge, Division 1, District 3, Position 1: Write-in, Robert Frobisher
Whatcom County Superior Court Judge, Position 2: Dave Grant
Public Utility District 1, Commissioner District 2: Paul D. Kenner

I had far better luck on the issues. Out of ten issues, Washington and local voters agreed with me on eight of them. The exceptions are marijuana legalization and regulation, which passed 55-44 and a new local property tax, which passed 55-45.

Issues
I-1185, Two-Thirds Tax Requirement: Yes
I-1240, Charter Schools: Yes
R-74, Same-sex Marriage: Approved
I-502, Marijuana: No
SJR-8221, Altering the Debt Limit: Approved
SJR-8223, Public Fund Investments: Rejected
A-1, B&O Tax Increase: Repeal
A-2, Petroleum Tax: Repeal
Port of Bellingham, Prop-1, Number of Port Commissioners: No
City of Bellingham, Prop-1, Low-Income Housing Levy: No

*Since Washington is a 100% vote-by-mail state, and the last day for the ballot to be postmarked was election day, there may be up to two million ballots out there floating through the postal system, waiting to be counted. These results are, therefore, only provisional.

Aftermath: Reflections on Obama's Re-election

Barack Obama has been re-elected President of the United States.

For starters, Gary Johnson was not a spoiler. While the results are still coming in, as of 11:30pm Pacific, there was not a single state won by Obama where Romney would have won even if every Johnson voter had voted for Romney instead.

Second, there is no mandate. While Obama won, he won with a far narrower lead in both the popular vote and the electoral college than he had in 2008. While Democrats increased their lead in the Senate, Republicans increased their lead in governorships, and the House is on track to be more or less the same as it was. This was very much a status quo election.

On the whole, will we be better or worse with Obama as president?

First of all, expect the fiscal cliff to stay in place. After all, we just re-elected most of the people who put it there to begin with. While I haven't spent too much time learning about the fiscal cliff, Wikipedia claims a 19.63% increase in revenue and a 0.25% decrease in spending, or a nearly 80-to-1 ratio of tax hikes to spending cuts. This will not end well-- and even if our new old government leaders manage to avoid the cliff, the re-elected Obama is in a prime position to extract concessions he was unable to before the election. Any compromise will include more tax hikes than spending cuts, if spending is actually cut at all.

Second, Obamacare will be implemented fully over the next few years. Expect the nation's health, freedom and balance sheet to all suffer. Although to be honest, I don't believe Romney would have done any better.

The national debt will continue to grow. If the fiscal cliff causes a second recession, expect more stimulus and bailouts, probably for Europe too. We may look back at $1.5 trillion deficits and laugh about how small they were. On the other hand, the same probably would've happened under Romney, considering his plan to index military spending to 4% of GDP.

On other long-term important issues, I don't expect Obama to do much of anything. He'll keep ignoring space (mercifully), Social Security will continue to stumble forward without reform, trade deals will be forgotten, immigration won't change. We'll mostly withdraw from Afghanistan on schedule, although the lack of attention the war gets these days means we'll probably keep troops there for the long haul, same as we've still got troops in Germany, Japan and Korea. On trade and Afghanistan, at least, Romney would have been even worse. While Romney may have avoided the fiscal cliff, his insistence to go after China on trade might have been just as bad for the economy.

The main difference between the two candidates in terms of our long-term welfare is this: With Obama's victory, 2016 will see another wide-open primary for Republicans, where we'll have another shot at nominating a true spokesperson for liberty. Had Romney won, we wouldn't get that chance until 2020. So hold onto your hats. It's gonna be a rough four years for liberty, but we made it through the last four. We'll make it this time, too.

Monday, November 5, 2012

Final Ballot

One last post about the election before it's all over tomorrow (hopefully): My completed ballot. If you're in Washington, or even Whatcom county or Bellingham, feel free to make things easier on yourself by just voting the same as me!

A note on the write-ins: As a matter of democratic principle, I refuse to vote for anyone running unopposed. Back in Ohio, that meant I just didn't vote in some races. Here in Washington, every race allows write-ins, so I'm writing in some names to register my displeasure with the unopposed candidates.

Candidates
U.S. President: Gary Johnson (Libertarian), VP James P. Gray
U.S. Senator: Michael Baumgartner (R)
U.S. Representative: Dan Matthews (R)
WA Governor: Rob McKenna (R)
WA Lieutenant Governor: Bill Finkbeiner (R)
WA Secretary of State: Kim Wyman (R)
WA State Treasurer: Sharon Hanek (R)
WA State Auditor: James Watkins (R)
WA Attorney General: Reagan Dunn (R)
WA Commissioner of Public Lands: Clint Didier (R)
WA Superintendent of Public Instruction: Write-in, Luisa Rey
WA Insurance Commissioner: John R. Adams (R)
WA State Senator, District 40: John Swapp (Ind-R)
WA State Representative, District 40, Position 1: Write-in, Rufus Sixsmith
WA State Representative, District 40, Position 2: Jeff Morris (D)
WA Supreme Court Justice, Position 2: Write-in, Adam Ewing
WA Supreme Court Justice, Position 8: Write-in, Timothy Cavendish
WA Supreme Court Justice, Position 9: Richard B. Sanders
WA Court of Appeals Judge, Division 1, District 3, Position 1: Write-in, Robert Frobisher
Whatcom County Superior Court Judge, Position 2: Dave Grant
Public Utility District 1, Commissioner District 2: Paul D. Kenner

Issues
I-1185, Two-Thirds Tax Requirement: Yes
I-1240, Charter Schools: Yes
R-74, Same-sex Marriage: Approved
I-502, Marijuana: No
SJR-8221, Altering the Debt Limit: Approved
SJR-8223, Public Fund Investments: Rejected
A-1, B&O Tax Increase: Repeal
A-2, Petroleum Tax: Repeal
Port of Bellingham, Prop-1, Number of Port Commissioners: No
City of Bellingham, Prop-1, Low-Income Housing Levy: No

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

No on Two Local Issues

With exactly a week before my ballot has to be back in the government's hands, I'm filling it out a bit faster now. So far I've voted yes on I-1185, I-1240 and SJR-8221, approved R-74 and voted no on I-502, SJR-8223, A-1 and A-2. Below are two local issues, one for the Port of Bellingham and one for the City of Bellingham.
 
NO on Port of Bellingham, Proposition 1, Number of Port Commissioners


The Issue: There are currently three Port of Bellingham Commissioners; this proposition would raise that number to five.

My Position: While the official argument for Prop-1 speaks of increased representation, this smells to me like an attempt to pack the commission. I can find no clear evidence for or against my hypothesis, but it still smells like a fish to me. Plus, Washington's open meetings law applies to one-on-one meetings of a three-member commission; it does not apply to one-on-one meetings of a five-member commission. That smells even fishier. I will be voting NO on the Port's Prop-1.

NO on City of Bellingham, Proposition 1, Low-Income Housing Levy

The Issue: City Council wants to raise property taxes by $36 per $100,000 of assessed value to fund a program for low-income housing.

My Position: I will be voting no on this tax increase, for three reasons:

1) An increase in the property tax will increase rent, and I don't want my rent to go up.

2) Trying to make housing more affordable by raising taxes on housing is just plain stupid. As the official "Statement Against" says, "You don't make housing more affordable by making it more expensive."

3) The state and federal governments already provide low-income housing subsidies, as well as other programs for low-income people. Do we really need yet another level of government doing the same thing as the others?

No on Three Minor Statewide Issues

With exactly a week before my ballot has to be back in the government's hands, I'm filling it out a bit faster now. So far I've voted yes on I-1185, I-1240 and SJR-8221, approved R-74 and voted no on I-502. Below are three minor statewide issues: SJR-8223 on public fund investments, plus two advisory votes.
 
NO on SJR-8223, Public Fund Investments


The Issue: In general, Washington state public funds are prohibited from investing in private stocks and bonds. Over time, a laundry list of exceptions has been added to the constitution, primarily allowing public trust funds and public pension funds to invest in private stocks and bonds. SJR-8223 would add the operating budgets of the University of Washington and Washington State University to the list of exceptions.

My Position: Using public funds to invest in private companies looks to me like a backdoor way to pick winners and losers with voters none-the-wiser. I think the general prohibition is a great idea, and that we should probably reduce the list of restrictions rather than increase it.

REPEAL A-1, B&O Tax Increase

The Issue: The Washington legislature raised B&O taxes on some financial institutions and lowered taxes for others, including manufacturers of agriculture products and newspapers, for a net 10-year tax increase of $24 million.

My Position: Tax increases in general are bad. This one in particular is worse. It raises taxes on a disfavored industry (finance) by $170 million, and mostly offsets it with cuts to favored industries (agriculture, newspapers). While this is only an advisory vote, I will vote to repeal to send a message against tax increases and against favors to certain industries over others.

REPEAL A-2, Petroleum Tax

The Issue: A tax on certain commercial petroleum products was set to expire, and the Washington legislature extended the expiration date for a 10-year tax increase of $24 million.

My Position: Once again, tax increases are bad. While A-2 is not as bad as A-1, I will still vote to repeal to send a message against tax increases.

Yes on SJR-8221, Altering the Debt Limit

With about a week before my ballot has to be back in the government's hands, I'm filling it out bit by bit. So far I've voted yes on I-1185 and I-1240, approved R-74 and voted no on I-502.
 
SJR-8221, Altering the Debt Limit


The Issue: Engrossed Senate Joint Resolution 8221 is a constitutional amendment implementing three changes to the Washington state limit on debt payments:

1) The amendment would schedule three reductions to the state debt limit. Currently at 9.0% of general state revenues, the limit would fall to 8.5% in 2014, 8.25% in 2016 and 8.0% in 2034 (and no, that's not a typo, that's a reduction scheduled for twenty-two years after the amendment).

2) The current limit is based on the average of general state revenues over the previous three years. The amendment would change that to six years.

3) Whereas "general state revenues" currently only includes revenue that is not dedicated to a specific use, the amendment would redefine "general state revenues" to include the state property tax, which is dedicated to the specific use of funding public schools.

My Position: I'm no fan of government debt, and Washington state debt is already over 20% of GSP. I wholeheartedly support lowering the limit on state debt.

The Changes:

1) While scheduling the final drop to 8.0% for 2034 is nothing but cynical, a drop to 8.5% at the next biennial budget and 8.25% at the biennial budget after that is a clear win for smaller government.

2) Extending the the basis for the limit from the average of three years to six years stabilizes the limit against recessions. However, since revenue typically grows year-to-year, the six-year average will usually be smaller than the three-year average. The debt limit will be a smaller percentage of a smaller number-- again, a win for smaller government.

3) Expanding the definition of "general state revenues" to include property taxes further stabilizes the limit, as property taxes are more stable than other forms of revenue. However, this also raises the limit. The Commission on State Debt (PDF) found that property taxes are about 10% of general state revenue, but typically grow slower (2%) than the rest of general state revenue (4.5%). Even so, if these numbers hold true, the new limit would be about 2.5% lower than the old in 2014, and would drop to almost 6% lower than the old in 2016. Once again, a win for small government.

I will be voting YES on SJR-8221.

No on I-502, Marijuana

With about a week before my ballot has to be back in the government's hands, I'm filling it out bit by bit. So far I've voted yes on both I-1185 and I-1240, and approved R-74.
 
I-502, Marijuana

The Issue: I-502 would make it legal under state law (but not federal law) to possess and sell marijuana under a system of strict regulations. Marijuana producers could not have any financial interest in marijuana retailers and vice versa. Licenses to produce, process or retail marijuana would cost $250 to apply plus $1000 per year per location, with samples regularly submitted to state labs for testing.

Furthermore, marijuana would be taxed at 25% at each level of production and distribution, prior to state and local B&O and sales taxes. At the legally-mandated minimum of two steps of production (producer -> retailer), state taxes on marijuana would be approximately 68%. Total tax, including the state average for local sales taxes, would be over 70%.

I-502 also establishes many alcohol-equivalent rules for marijuana use. For example, marijuana possession would remain illegal for those under 21, driving under the influence of marijuana would be illegal for everyone, open containers in public would be prohibited, etc. The pro-502 website is here. The official anti-502 website, which is pro-legalization, is here.

My Position: I don't fully buy the arguments supporting the drug war, but I also don't buy a lot of the arguments opposing it. My libertarian leanings run up against path dependency, and I remain agnostic on the drug war as a whole.

I am opposed to I-502 because it won't bring any of the benefits of legalization, yet will create a massive new state bureaucracy under the guise of legalization.

My Reasons:

1) I-502 will directly contradict federal law, under which marijuana production, distribution and possession will all remain illegal. If passed, the initiative is likely to be struck down entirely or in part in federal court. (The counterargument is that I-502 allows but does not require violations of federal law, so that it is not pre-empted and will not be struck down. However, I-502 does seem to require violations of federal law by state marijuana regulators, particularly the prohibitions on possession and distribution of marijuana. The feds may also consider it money laundering to accept funds raised from the marijuana tax.)

2) Even if I-502 is not struck down, the threat of federal prosecution for marijuana crimes will prevent the benefits of legalization from being realized. Licensed marijuana producers, processors and retailers will have their names, addresses and precise details of their businesses recorded in a state database. Any guesses on how long it takes that database to get into federal hands? Anyone who opens a marijuana business is betting big on that never happening. New producers will be discouraged from entering the market; existing producers will be discouraged from becoming licensed.

3) Furthermore, the regulatory system set up by I-502 will place legal marijuana sellers at a substantial disadvantage to illegal sellers. Legal marijuana sales will have a cumulative tax of at least 68%, and possibly more than 100% if the production and distribution chain contains more than two steps. Then there's the significant regulatory burden placed on legal sellers-- the fees they must pay to the government, or to third parties because of government requirements; the restrictions on where they can sell, where and how they can advertise, what other businesses they can be involved in; and all of it with the threat of federal prosecution still hanging over their heads. Again, new producers will be discouraged from entering the market, and existing producers will be discouraged from becoming licensed.

4) The existing (illegal) marijuana market is an international one, yet legal marijuana sellers under I-502 will be limited to Washington state, both in who they buy from and who they sell to. With the other disadvantages placed on legal sellers, they will never be able to compete with existing illegal sellers, and those illegal sellers have scant incentive to become legal.

Whatever benefits full legalization might provide, we won't see any of them under I-502. Meanwhile, the state will spend tens of millions of dollars setting up a bureaucracy to regulate a market that will likely fail to materialize.

I will be voting NO on I-502.

Saturday, October 27, 2012

Approve R-74, Same Sex Marriage

With less than two weeks before my ballot has to be back in the government's hands, I'm filling it out bit by bit. So far I've voted yes on both I-1185 and I-1240.

R-74, Same Sex Marriage


The Issue: R-74 is a referendum on Senate Bill 6239, which extended the legal term "marriage" to include relationships previously included only under the term "domestic partnership" and restricted the term "domestic partnership" so that it would not overlap the term "marriage." SB-6239 also granted special immunities to clergy and religious organizations to preserve their right to not perform or recognize any particular marriage.

SB-6239 was signed into law by Governor Gregoire in February of this year. Opponents gathered enough petition signatures to require a referendum; that referendum is R-74. Approval means the law will be enacted; rejection means it will not be enacted. The pro-approval website is here; the pro-rejection website is here.

My Position: Whether or not to marry and who we marry if we do is one of the most deeply personal choices we can make, and the government has no place in it. Unfortunately, that option isn't on the table.

Current law in Washington has already established same-sex "domestic partnerships" which are legally equivalent to marriage in all but name. R-74 is not about relationships or love or God's will or anything else its supporters and detractors claim. Everything that could happen under R-74 would also happen without it. R-74 is a very narrow question that is entirely linguistic: Should the legal term "marriage" also refer to what are now same-sex domestic partnerships?

Twice now, I've deliberately referred to "marriage" as a legal term, because in this instance, that is all that it is. State law cannot change the popular meaning of a word, only its use in legal terminology. I don't care one way or the other about legal terminology. A rose by any other name...

However, R-74 also grants special protections to religious organizations to preserve their right to not perform or recognize same-sex marriages. This provision gets closer to my ideal marriage policy than any other proposal I've ever seen-- You should be free to marry whoever you want, and I should be free to acknowledge or ignore it however I want. I would prefer if these protections were granted to everyone, not just religious organizations. Even so, R-74 enshrines the right to disagree, and this, I think, is a very important first step towards my ideal.

I will be voting APPROVE on R-74.

Friday, October 26, 2012

Yes on I-1240, Charter Schools

With less than two weeks before my ballot has to be back in the government's hands, I'm filling it out bit by bit. Voting Yes on I-1185 was easy; I-1240 is more difficult.

I-1240, Charter Schools

The Issue: I-1240 would create a "new" type of public school, one managed by a non-religious, non-profit organization, yet funded by the state government. Forty-one other states have adopted charter schools; I-1240 would allow a total of 40 charter schools in Washington. The pro-1240 website is here; the anti-1240 website is here.

My Position: In general, I support increasing school choice. In this particular case, I'm a bit leery for a few reasons. However, any reform that provides more choice is a step in the right direction, so I support I-1240.

My Reservations: I have three main concerns about I-1240:

1) Washington's charter schools will be explicity non-religious. Now under current Supreme Court doctrine, we may not have any other choice, but it still concerns me. If I-1240 passes, Washington will be establishing a program to give tax money to private organizations, and explicitly excluding certain organizations from consideration for that money based soley on religion. (On the other hand, it's not like regular public schools are any better in that regard, and at least I-1240 will expand parental choice.)

2) Washington's charter schools can only be run by non-profits. By removing the profit motive, I-1240 removes one of the best advantages charter schools have over regular public schools. (On the other hand, Washington voters have already rejected charter schools three times. Non-profit charters may be the only kind of charter school we can hope to see here in the near future.)

3) I would prefer a full voucher system that allowed parents the full range of choices for their children's education. (On the other hand, realistically, that's not going to happen any time soon, at least not in Washington state.)

Counterarguments: The No-on-1240 side makes four main counterarguments against I-1240, quoted below from the official Argument Against published in the voters' pamphlet:

1) "Charter schools will drain millions of dollars from existing public schools." (Rebuttal: In Washington, public school funding is based on enrollment. If a student enrolls in a different public school, the money follows the student. Charter schools will take money from existing schools only to the extent that parents choose charter schools over existing schools.)

2) "Charter schools will serve only a tiny fraction of our student population." (Rebuttal: Since school funding follows the student, this means that only a tiny fraction of public school money will be taken from existing schools. So what's the problem? I have a hard time taking this counterargument seriously. If the problem is that only a few would benefit, what kind of solution is it to forbid those few from benefiting?)

3) "Charter schools are an unproven, risky gamble." (Rebuttal: Forty-one states plus DC have already adopted charter schools, some more than twenty years ago. You might say compact discs are unproven, risky gambles too. But seriously, regular public schools are a gamble too-- some fail spectacularly. The difference is that you currently can't leave a public school without shelling out thousands to a private school or homeschooling. The parents' option to exit will not only keep charter schools on their toes, but improve performance in non-charter schools as well.)

4) "Charter schools undermine local control." (Rebuttal: I should hope so! If I were a parent, I wouldn't want the local board to have such total control over where I educated my children. I-1240 only undermines "local control" insofar as it restores choice to parents.)

I will be voting YES on I-1240.

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Yes on I-1185, the Two-Thirds Tax Requirement

The election is upon us! In recent days I have received both the poorly-named, 143-page voters' "pamphlet" with sample ballot as well as my actual ballot. I have until 8pm on Election Day to get it back to the government, so it's time to do my homework. First up is an easy one:

I-1185, the Two-Thirds Tax Requirement

The Issue: Current law in Washington state requires tax increases to be passed with a two-thirds majority in both houses of the state legislature, or by a simple majority in a popular vote. This law has been passed four times by popular initiative, most recently in 2007 and 2010. It was overturned by the legislature upon losing initiative protection in 2010. I-1185 renews the law to prevent it from being overturned in 2013. The pro-1185 website is here; the anti-1185 website is here.

My Position: I wholeheartedly support I-1185, and indeed any law that provides a check on the government's ability to take my money at will. The two-thirds requirement makes it more likely that taxes will only be raised when it truly is necessary.

Counterarguments: There seem to be four main arguments against I-1185:

1) Taxes should be higher, and I-1185 makes it more difficult to raise them as high as they should be, negatively impacting government services. (Rebuttal: No, taxes should not be higher. Important services can be funded by cutting non-important spending. If everything the government is doing is so important that none of it can be cut, then it should be easy to get a two-thirds vote in the legislature or a simple majority popular vote.)

2) I-1185 is unfair because it allows tax cuts & loopholes to be passed with a simple majority, but reversing those cuts & loopholes requires a two-thirds majority. (Rebuttal: This is true, but I have to admit, I'm just fine with a system that's biased towards letting me keep more of my own money.)

3) A two-thirds requirement is undemocratic. (Rebuttal: I-1185 allows tax increases via direct, simply majority popular votes. Nothing could be more democratic than that.)

4) A two-thirds requirement is unconstitutional. (Rebuttal: I would certainly prefer a constitutional amendment that does what I-1185 does, but constitutional amendments must be proposed by the legislature, and wouldn't you know it, they don't seem to like amendments that limit their own power. If an initiative as beneficial as I-1185 actually is unconstitutional, that would be a failure of the state constitution, not the initiative.)

I will be voting YES on I-1185.

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

The Elite Eight

This blog has been on an unintentional summer hiatus the past some weeks, thanks to a combination of great weather, longer work hours and several friends' weddings on the other side of the country. A lot has happened politically in the meantime, much of it worth ignoring, but there is a semi-recent piece of news about the 2008 presidential election that I really should cover. And no, I don't mean that one.

Back on August 9th, we here in Washington state found out the list of candidates who passed certification and will appear on our ballot. It's no secret I don't like Romney, and I definitely don't like Obama either. Lucky for me, there are six other tickets on the ballot. Since most outlets are only going cover two, maybe three of these candidates, I present for your informational pleasure the eight candidates for President of the United States:


Ross C. (Rocky) Anderson, Justice Party
VP: Luis J. Rodriguez
Do they have the ballot access to win? Yes, just barely, with 26 states and exactly 270 EVs, counting write-in states.
Links: Justice Party's official site, Facebook, Twitter
Rocky Anderson's official site, Facebook, Twitter
General impression: Left of Obama, but mostly within mainstream liberalism.
Party slogan: "Economic, environmental and social justice for all."


Virgil Goode, Constitution Party
VP: James N. Clymer
Do they have the ballot access to win? Unclear, although possible; aiming for 40 states.
Links: Constitution Party's official site, Facebook, Twitter
Virgil Goode's official site, Facebook, Twitter
General impression: Mostly paleoconservative, but likes entitlements.
Campaign slogan: "Save America, citizenship matters." 


James Harris, Socialist Workers Party
VP: Alyson Kennedy
Do they have the ballot access to win? Unlikely; aiming for just 8 states plus write-ins.
Links: The best I can find is The Militant, a weekly newspaper closely associated with the Socialist Workers Party. Neither the party nor the campaign seem to have an online presence outside The Militant.
General impression: Socialist focusing on union and race issues.
Quote: “The capitalist crisis, attacks by bosses, and workers’ resistance are worldwide phenomena. Everywhere they are driven to attack us..." --James Harris, Aug. 11, 2012


Gary Johnson, Libertarian Party
VP: James P. Gray
Do they have the ballot access to win? Yes; on the ballot in 38 states so far, totalling 394 EVs.
Links: Libertarian Party's official site, Facebook, Twitter
Gary Johnson's official site, Facebook, Twitter 
General impression: A solid libertarian, the best-known third-partier.
Party slogan: "Minimum government, maximum freedom."


Peta Lindsay, Party for Socialism and Liberation
VP: Yari Osorio
Do they have the ballot access to win? Not even close, at just 60 EVs. But even if they did win, neither Lindsay nor Osorio is eligible to be President. Lindsay is only 28, too young under the Constitution, while Osorio immigrated to the US as a child and is not a natural born citizen.
Links: Party for Socialism and Liberation's official site, Facebook, Twitter
Peta Lindsay's official site, Facebook, Twitter 
General impression: Hardcore socialist focusing on economic issues.
Campaign slogan: "Seize the banks - Jobs, health care and housing for all - Fight for socialism."


Barack Obama, Democratic Party
VP: Joe Biden
Do they have the ballot access to win? Of course.
Links: Democratic Party's official site, Facebook, Twitter
Barack Obama's official site, Facebook, Twitter 
General impression: The status quo.
Campaign slogan: "Forward."


Mitt Romney, Republican Party
VP: Paul Ryan
Do they have the ballot access to win? Of course.
Links: Republican Party's official site, Facebook, Twitter
Mitt Romney's official site, Facebook, Twitter 
General impression: A Democrat's vision of a stereotypical Republican.
Campaign slogan: "America's Comeback Team."


Jill Stein, Green Party
VP: Cheri Honkalai
Do they have the ballot access to win? Yes; on the ballot in 35 states so far, totalling 442 EVs.
Links: Green Party's official site, Facebook, Twitter
Jill Stein's official site, Facebook, Twitter 
General impression: Left of Anderson, but right of the socialists.
Campaign slogan: "A Green New Deal for America."


Friday, June 8, 2012

Romney, Obama and the Big Diversion

Apparently, Romney's latest talking point is that Obama "knowingly" slowed the economic recovery by focusing on passing health care reform rather than improving the economy. Sigh. Never mind whether this is true or not. If you believe half the rhetoric that comes out of the Romney camp on what should be done about the economy, you should be happy that Obama set his sights on health care instead!

Look at what Obama did when he actually was focused on the economy. There were the auto and bank bailouts, then the $800 billion "stimulus" that ended up as mostly just a bailout for state and local governments. Then there was Cash for Clunkers. Once health care reform was done, there was Dodd-Frank, plus talk of a second stimulus that never got anywhere. And since 2010, Obama's economic plan has primarily consisted of taxing the rich and insisting the stimulus worked.

To be fair, part of that stimulus included tax cuts, and there is the payroll tax cut. I suppose it's possible that, if Obama had focused on the economy instead of health care, he would have passed more tax cuts instead of more spending, more bailouts, pushing Dodd-Frank through a few months earlier or even raising taxes. It's possible, sure, if you believe it. But the reality is, if Obama actually had focused on the economy more, we just would have seen more of the same policies that conservatives never wanted in the first place. If you believe conservative ideas are what the economy really needs to recover, you should be happy Obama got distracted by health care!

Is this a sign that Romney doesn't really believe conservative ideas are what the economy needs? Perhaps, but that's probably reading too much into it. More likely, Romney is just appealing to the old idea that government should just do something, no matter what it is, and that being seen to be doing something is more important than what you're actually doing. Romney sees an opportunity to attack Obama for looking like he didn't do enough, even though what he would have done would have made things worse. Hopefully Romney loses that old idea before he moves into the White House and starts to actually govern.

Monday, May 21, 2012

Gary Johnson on the Issues

Last Sunday, I wrapped up my series of posts on Mitt Romney's positions in the debates. Now it's time to look at Gary Johnson, who initially ran as a Republican but has now secured the nomination for the Libertarian Party. Since Johnson was only in two debates, the first and the sixth, there's simply not as much material as there was for Romney, who was in 19 debates. While Romney got five entries, Johnson only gets this one.

National Security
In the first debate, he said he would withdraw from Afghanistan "tomorrow," was against the war in Iraq from the beginning, and was also opposed to intervention in Libya (Syria was not yet an issue at the time). He is solidly against war, saying in the 6th debate, "The biggest threat to our national security is the fact that we're bankrupt." As part of his promise to balance the budget, he supports a 43% cut to military spending.

Immigration and Trade
He said in the first debate that there was "very little, if any benefit" to securing the border, and that freer immigration would create "tens of millions of jobs." On trade, he said, "I'm a free market guy... I don't favor tariffs of any kind, whatsoever." In the two debates, he was only able to address trade with one country, Cuba, which he supports, because he believes that trade encourages friendship. 

Taxes and Spending
He supports the Fair Tax, a national sales tax that would replace the corporate and personal income taxes. On spending, he would balance the budget in his first year in office. Since he says current spending outpaces revenue by 43%, that's how much he wants to cut from all federal spending, including 43% each from the military, Medicare and Medicaid. To get it done, he would turn Medicare and Medicaid into block grants, veto any bill where expenditures exceeded revenue, completely eliminate the Department of Education and subject federal programs to cost-benefit analyses, then get rid of the ones that don't measure up.

The Economy
To get the economy growing again, he would restructure the tax code and greatly reduce federal spending as described above. He also sees freer immigration as a way to encourage "tens of millions" of new jobs. He would eliminate the federal minimum wage, and stop extending unemployment benefits.

Social Issues
He declined to describe himself as "pro-life," and said in the first debate that he supports abortion "up until viability." (While viability lacks a precise definition, that would allow abortions at least into the fifth month of pregnancy, and possibly later.) However, he opposes public funds for abortion, and favors parental notification and counseling. On drugs, he admits to having smoked marijuana, and supports legalization along with regulation and taxation of marijuana. While gay marriage didn't come up in the debates, on Twitter he often sells himself as the only candidate supporting "marriage equality" (at least, prior to Obama's recent conversion). 

Ron Paul
When directly asked in the sixth debate what made him a better choice for libertarian Republicans than Ron Paul, Johnson said, "I'm not going to presume to make that assumption." When asked who his running mate would be if it had to be someone at the sixth debate, he said Ron Paul. On Twitter, many of his public tweets are also directed towards Ron Paul. While I haven't seen anything explicitly laying this out, I suspect he looks at Paul's age and wants to be the next Ron Paul once Paul himself leaves public life. It will be very interesting to see how much support Johnson gets from Paulites once Paul eventually quits the race.

Sunday, May 13, 2012

Mitt Romney on Other Issues

This is the fifth and last in a series of entries revisiting Mitt Romney's policies as stated in the debates. Upcoming entries will address Gary Johnson's and Barack Obama's policies. The first in this series covered foreign policy; the second covered economic policy. The third covered social issues, and the fourth covered health care. This entry wraps up the series by covering a few things that didn't fit into any other areas-- in particular, space, flip-flopping and a few general quotes.

Space:

In the 18th debate, Romney said space exploration "should certainly be a priority," and criticized Obama for destroying jobs on the space coast. He later mentioned science, commercial and military benefits from space exploration, but the outsized emphasis he placed on jobs made clear that he sees NASA as a jobs program for Floridians.

In the 19th debate, he said he did not have a plan for space, but would develop one after he got into office. He opposed Gingrich's plan for a moon base, and said he liked manned spaceflight. 

Flip-flopping:

Throughout the debates, there were many times Romney was accused of changing his positions or actually did change his positions. These range from the inconsequential that can be written off as having misspoke, to the minor that can be reconciled with a bit of effort, to the major that are nearly impossible to reconcile with any consistent underlying belief. While I pointed out the inconsequential flips within the original debate analyses, I will not list them here. I have tried to find ways to reconcile different positions, and I am only including in this list positions that cannot be reconciled or where the reconciliations imply something Romney might object to if stated directly.

Reconcilable Inconsistencies:

In the 6th debate, he said, "[Romneycare] is a state plan for a state. It is not a national plan... please don't try and make me retreat from the words that I wrote in my book. I stand by what I wrote. I believe in what I did." However, as was widely reported at the time, the hardcover edition of his book included the line "We can accomplish the same thing for everyone in the country," referring to Romneycare, while the paperback removed that line. This line does not necessarily imply a national plan; it may just imply that he wanted the other 49 states to adopt plans similar to Romneycare, which is consistent with his constant defense of that program.

He wants to block grant Medicaid to the states, and then restrict how quickly the block grants grow. In the 8th debate, he wanted to grow them at 1-2% per year, while in the 10th at inflation-plus-one-percent. Reconciling these two numbers requires an inflation rate of 0-1%, which is possible, but implies a persistently stagnant economy during a Romney administration.

In the 15th debate, he said he did not run for re-election in Massachusetts because he had set out a list of 100 things he wanted to accomplish and had accomplished them, so he didn't need to run again. If he was elected as President, however, he said, "of course I'll fight for a second term." Does this imply he expects not to accomplish very much with his first term?

In the 16th debate, Romney was attacked by Gingrich for ads run by a SuperPAC working to elect him, but successfully got Gingrich to admit that exercising any influence on the SuperPAC would be a violation of federal law. He then criticized Gingrich himself for not exercising any influence on his SuperPAC. This can only be reconciled if Romney believes it is appropriate to attack someone for not violating a federal law that he himself chooses not to violate.

In the 18th debate, a moderator pointed out that Romney in the 17th debate had wanted to focus on Obama instead of the other Republicans, but in the intervening time had dramatically upped his negativity towards Gingrich. He justified it by saying he learned "something" from losing to Gingrich in South Carolina, apparently that voters like negativity.

Irreconcilable Inconsistencies:

In the 9th debate, the moderator accused Romney of being for the automaker bailout before he was against it before he was for it again. In that debate, and others, Romney took a position against the bailout and especially against the government-managed bankruptcy process, which he likened to Obama "put[ting] his hands on the scales of justice." Earlier this month, Romney switched back to supporting the bailout and managed bankruptcy, saying, "I pushed the idea of a managed bankruptcy, and finally when that was done, and help was given, the companies got back on their feet... So, I'll take a lot of credit for the fact that this industry has come back."

Also in the 9th debate, he claimed that the problem with health care is that "government is playing too heavy a role." However in that debate and many others, he repeatedly defended the individual mandate at the core of both Romneycare and Obamacare, and even championed the individual mandate as a conservative solution for health care. When directly asked about this inconsistency, he instead talked about how he did not want to eliminate Medicaid.

In the 11th debate, he said on immigration, "I'm not going to start drawing lines here about who gets to stay and who gets to go," then immediately said that illegal immigrants should not "get to stay." Whether or not that's an appropriate line to draw, it is drawing a line.

Also in the 11th debate, he complained that Obama wants to cut "a trillion dollars" from defense and spend it on Obamacare, and that this would amount to spending us into bankruptcy. Spending the same amount of money on defense, however, would not be spending us into bankruptcy.

In the 18th debate, he said, "We're still a great nation, but a great nation doesn't have so many people suffering." To formalize, a ∈ B, a ∈ C and B ∪ C = ∅

Collected Quotes:

"There are a lot of reasons not to elect me, a lot of reasons not to elect other people on this stage, but one reason to elect me is that I know what I stand for, I've written it down." (From the 6th debate.)

"I don't try and define who's rich and who's not rich. I want everybody in America to be rich... I want people in America to recognize that the future will be brighter for their kids than it was for them." (From the 6th debate.)

"We are a patriotic people. We place our hand over our heart during the playing of the national anthem. No other people on Earth do that." (From the 6th debate.)

"I'm running for office, for Pete's sake, I can't have illegals." (From the 8th debate.)

In the 9th debate, he called himself "a man of steadiness and constancy."

Asked why he was not planning on releasing his tax returns until near the end of the primaries, Romney answered, "Because I want to make sure that I beat President Obama." (From the 17th debate.)

When asked in the 20th debate to describe himself in one word, Romney answered, "Resolute."

Friday, May 11, 2012

Mitt Romney on Health Policy

This is the fourth in a series of entries revisiting Mitt Romney's policies as stated in the debates. The first covered foreign policy; the second covered economic policy. The third covered the social issues of religion, gay marriage, contraception, abortion, and guns. This entry covers health care, including Obamacare, Romneycare, Medicare, Medicaid and other health reform ideas.

Obamacare vs Romneycare:

Romney often highlighted differences between the Massachusetts health care reform commonly called "Romneycare" and the national Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, commonly called "Obamacare." While he supported and throughout the debates continued to defend Romneycare, he opposed Obamacare to the extent that he promised to grant waivers to all 50 states on his first day in office and to press Congress for full repeal. Claimed differences include:
  • Obamacare raises taxes; Romneycare didn't
  • Obamacare takes money from Medicare; Romneycare didn't
  • Obamacare is a national program; Romneycare is a state program
  • Similarly, Obamacare is unconstitutional for the national government; Romneycare is constitutional because it's at the state level
  • Obamacare includes "a panel that ultimately is going to tell people what kind of care they can have," referring to the Independent Payment Advisory Board; Romneycare does not include such a panel
  • Obamacare applies to 100% of the citizenry; Romneycare supposedly only addressed the 8-9% who were uninsured (he said 9% in the 5th debate, 8% in the 6th, 7th and 17th debates)
  • Obamacare leads to regulations like the contraception mandate; Romneycare had a provision that people did not have to buy coverage for treatments or medical devices which violated their religious beliefs
  • Obamacare was 2,700 pages long; Romneycare was 70 pages long
Note that these are differences claimed by Romney; whether or not you find them believable is up to you. Also, some of these were repeated (a lot) more than others. Throughout the debates, Romney often returned to Obamacare's cuts to Medicare and to the federalism defense that states can adopt individual mandates but the national government cannot. On the other hand, the IPAB point was, to my knowledge, only mentioned once.

Medicare and Medicaid

As mentioned above, Romney often criticized Obamacare for cutting Medicare. In fact, almost every time Romney mentioned Medicare, it was either to criticize Obamacare for cutting it, or defending Romneycare for not cutting it.

Regarding actual reforms to Medicare, he wants a shift to a premium support model like the Ryan plan. He also favors means testing for Medicare, where the rich would receive lower benefits and everyone else would receive higher benefits. Finally, he would not repeal Medicare Part D.

He would send Medicaid to the states as a block grant and only allow it to grow at either 1-2% per year (in the 8th debate) or inflation-plus-one-percent (in the 10th debate). He never mentioned any other reform to Medicaid, but repeated this block grant plan in several debates. 

Other Health Reforms 

Individual Mandates: While Romney opposes Obamacare, including its national individual mandate, he often defended the individual mandate itself as a good policy to carry out on the state level. In the 3rd debate, he compared it to states' ability to require children to attend school. He sees individual mandates as ways to provide the uninsured with what he called in the 6th debate "market-based, private" insurance. In the 8th debate, he said about the individual mandate in Massachusetts, "A lot of people were expecting government to pay their way. And we said, you know what? If people have the capacity to care for themselves and pay their own way, they should." Romney disagrees with Obama on what level of government should impose the individual mandate, but he agrees that it's a good policy in the first place.

Health Savings Accounts: In the 5th debate, Romney said health care "isn't working like a market," but rather is "working like a government utility" because consumers are separated from the cost of health care. He advocated health savings accounts to fix this problem, mentioning HSAs in the 5th and 9th debates.

Employer-based Insurance: In the 9th debate, Romney said we should treat individually-purchased insurance the same as employer-purchased insurance in regards to the tax code. He also mentioned this in the 19th debate.

Tort Reform: In the 9th debate, he advocated tort reform as part of the package of reforms he would replace Obamacare with. 

Health Issues Covered Elsewhere

Romney's positions on contraception and abortion were covered in the third entry in this series, on social issues. In addition to the section above, Obamacare was also covered in the second entry in the context of regulations and fiscal responsibility.

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Mitt Romney on Social Issues

This is the third in a series of entries revisiting Mitt Romney's policies as stated in the debates. The first covered foreign policy, including immigration, trade and defense, as well as policies toward some specific countries and regions. The second covered Romney's seven-point plan for economic growth and connected policy areas, including taxes, regulations, energy, the rule of law, education and fiscal responsibility. This entry covers the social issues of religion, gay marriage, contraception, abortion, and guns.

Religion

As is well known, Mitt Romney is a Mormon. Along with the other Mormon in the race at the time, Jon Huntsman, Romney declined to participate in the Thanksgiving Family Forum, which was by far the most religiously-oriented of the debates and the only one to take place in a church.

In the 2nd debate, Romney took a strong position on religious tolerance, saying "People of all faiths are welcome in this country. We treat people with respect regardless of their religious persuasion." In later debates, he said we should not elect people on the basis of their religion or where they go to church. While he would seek God's guidance on critical decisions, for the most part his religious beliefs would not affect his Presidential decisions. In the 20th debate, he said, "I don't think we've seen in the history of this country the kind of attack on religious conscience, religious freedom, religious tolerance that we've seen under Barack Obama."

Gay Marriage

Romney believes that gay people forming "loving, committed, long-term relationships" is "a wonderful thing to do," and they have the right to do so as long as they don't use the word marriage to describe it. (Quote from the 14th debate.) He supports amending the US Constitution to ban gay marriage, and thinks DADT should have been kept in place. He was the first governor of Massachusetts to grant marriage licenses to gay couples, but said he only did so because the state Supreme Court told him to. After saying in the 15th debate that he supported laws banning sexual orientation discrimination, he was asked when was the last time he advocated expanding gay rights, and he responded, "Right now."

Contraception

The issue of contraception arose first in the 14th debate, before the national contraception mandate controversy broke out. At the time, Romney called it an "unusual topic," and expressed disbelief that anyone would be talking about banning contraception. He said states should not be allowed to ban contraception, but also said none were trying to.

Regarding the contraception mandate, Romney said he included in Romneycare a provision that Massachusites did not have to buy insurance coverage for treatments or medical devices which violated their religious beliefs. His opposition to the contraception mandate was based not on a belief that the mandate was wrong in general, but rather that it applied to those who had religious objections to contraception. He seemed to agree with Santorum in the 20th debate that contraception leads to children being born out of wedlock and undermines the institution of the family, saying "Rick is absolutely right."

Abortion

In the 13th debate, Romney said he was only ever pro-choice to the extent that he did not want to actively change the laws in Massachusetts. He says he became pro-life while governor, and now wants to "protect the sanctity of life." In the 16th debate, he said he had always been pro-life, and said, "I thought I could go in that narrow path between my personal belief and letting government stay out of the issue," but ultimately decided while governor that he couldn't. As governor, he vetoed a bill defining life as starting at implantation rather than conception.

He says he would appoint judges who would follow the constitution, and he does not use abortion as a "litmus test" for judicial appointments. In a later debate, he said he did not believe the constitution contained a right to privacy.

Guns

Romney thinks rather than enacting new gun laws, we should just enforce the laws we already have. In Massachusetts, he signed a bill that was supported by both the pro-gun and anti-gun lobbies that banned assault weapons and raised gun fees 400%, but also opened up the right to cross a road with a gun while hunting, among other gun rights. When asked in the 13th debate about his changing positions of gay marriage, abortion and guns, he ignored the guns part of the question.

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Mitt Romney on Economic Policy

This is the second in a series of entries revisiting Mitt Romney's policies as stated in the debates. The first covered foreign policy, including immigration, trade and defense, as well as policies toward some specific countries and regions. This entry covers Romney's seven-point plan for economic growth (which he outlined in whole or in part in the 3rd, 6th, 7th, 17th and 19th debates) and the connected policy areas.

1: Taxes

Romney's position on taxes changed from debate to debate. For example, in the 3rd debate, he said, "I don't believe in raising taxes" and indicated he would walk away from a deal with Democrats offering a 10:1 ratio of spending cuts to tax hikes. But in the 4th debate, he said taxes should be "part of the American experience," so he was not concerned about raising taxes on those who do not pay federal income taxes. In the 8th debate, in Nevada, he advocated a state-level redistribution tax tied to acceptance of a nuclear waste facility. The state that built the facility would receive the money while the other 49 would pay the tax.

In the 16th debate he said the top tax bracket should be 25%, while in the 20th debate, he wanted to cut all marginal rates by 20%. Taken at face value, that would turn the current tax brackets of 10%, 15%, 25%, 28%, 33% and 35% into brackets of 8%, 12%, 20%, 22.4%, 26.4% and 28% (assuming the Bush cuts are kept in place and the 2013 tax cliff is avoided), with two brackets higher than 25%.

He would cut the corporate tax rate to 25% to make it more competitive with other countries. When combined with state corporate taxes, this would move us from the highest rate to the 8th highest rate among the 34 OECD countries. He would also eliminate taxes on savings for people with incomes less than $200,000.

2: Regulations

He said he wants to improve the regulatory climate, and specifically mentioned Obamacare, Dodd-Frank and NLRB actions such as going after Boeing as regulations that are hurting businesses and preventing job creation.

He also wants to require every business to prove the legal immigration status of new hires through a national identification card connected to the federal E-Verify database. Any business that hires someone without the card or that accepts a counterfeit card would be "severely sanctioned."

3: Trade

I covered Romney's trade policy in the first entry in this series. It primarily consists of "cracking down on China," but he also advocated expanding our exports.

4: Energy

Romney said in the 8th debate, "We're an energy-rich nation that's acting like an energy-poor nation." He focuses on energy security-- getting our energy from domestic sources rather than importing them. In the 4th debate, he said he wanted to "make sure we stop sending about $500 billion a year outside our country, in many cases to nations that are not real friendly with ours." However, he does support the Keystone XL pipeline from Canada.

To accomplish his goal of increased domestic production, he wants to reduce regulations on energy companies, especially oil and gas. At the same time, he has criticized Obama for subsidies to Solyndra and other alternative energy programs, indicating a general laissez-faire approach to energy. On the other hand, in line with his focus on domestic energy sources, he said he was willing to accept more expensive gasoline if that was the result of the "crippling sanctions" he wanted to place on Iran.

5: Rule of Law

While Romney often spoke of the fifth point as reinstating the rule of law, his focus with this point early on was labor policy. He viewed pro-union actions by the Obama administration as violations of the rule of law, in particular citing the GM bankruptcy and the NLRB case against Boeing. Romney believes the auto companies should have gone through the normal legal bankruptcy process from the beginning, saying in the 2nd debate that the GM bankruptcy allowed Obama to "put his hands on the scales of justice." However, in the 20th debate, he indicated he would be willing to bail out the auto companies after they've gone through a normal bankruptcy process, saying, "If they need help coming out of bankruptcy, the government can provide guarantees and get them back on their feet. No way would we allow the auto industry in America to totally implode and disappear." (Note that these positions on the auto bailout have apparently already been Etch-a-Sketched.) He also supports a federal right-to-work law.

In later debates he broadened the "rule of law" point to an opposition of "crony capitalism," citing Solyndra and the rejection of the Keystone XL pipeline as examples. Since I think it's appropriate, I'll include here a few positions from even broader interpretation of "the rule of law."

Judicial Oversight: Romney does not want Congress to oversee judges directly in most cases, but he does believe Congress has the ability to "rein in excessive judges" (from the 13th debate) either through direct impeachment or by clarifying statutes or, of course, Constitutional amendment.

Extrajudicial Killings: In the 11th debate, he said there is "a different form of law" for those who "attack the United States" compared to those who merely commit crimes against American citizens. In the 10th, he said that anyone who joins a force we are at war with is "fair game" even if they are an American citizen. In the 16th debate, he said, "Let me tell you, people who join al Qaeda are not entitled to rights of due process under our normal legal code."

Indefinite Detention: In the 16th debate, he not only said he would have signed the NDAA, which authorized indefinite detention of American citizens, but also defended indefinite detention itself. He would have signed the NDAA not just as a flawed bill that would still get funding to the troops, but because he believes indefinite detention of American citizens is, in itself, a good policy.

Eminent Domain: In the 2nd debate, he said he believed in eminent domain for "a public purpose" but not for property that would end up going to private organizations.

SOPA: He opposed SOPA and considered opposition to SOPA to be "standing for freedom" in the 17th debate. 

6: Education

In the 6th debate, he said, "We need to get the federal government out of education." He supports school choice and standardized testing. When accused by Perry of supporting Obama's Race to the Top program, which uses funding incentives to reward school systems for meeting certain goals, Romney said he did not support Race to the Top, but did support teacher evaluations and encouraging schools to hire better teachers and get rid of bad teachers. In the 20th debate, he supported No Child Left Behind because it stood up to the teachers unions and promoted school choice by establishing testing standards.

He also supports allowing illegal immigrant children to gain citizenship through military service, but not through attending college. He also frequently cited his policy requiring English immersion in Massachusetts schools as an example of how conservative he is.

7: Fiscal Responsibility

In general, Romney believes government should not spend more than it takes in. He frequently talked about the Cut, Cap and Balance plan-- cutting current spending, capping federal spending at 20% of GDP and thus balancing the budget through spending cuts rather than tax increases-- mentioning it in the 3rd, 5th, 7th, 10th and 20th debates.

He often cited repealing Obamacare as a way he would cut spending, but also complained that money was being cut from defense to pay for Obamacare, and that he wanted to spend the money on defense instead. As mentioned in the previous entry on Romney's positions on foreign policy, he wants to increase defense spending.

Other ways he proposed to cut spending include returning discretionary spending back to its 2008 level, cutting federal employment by 10% through attrition, linking public sector compensation to private sector wages, eliminating the National Endowment for the Arts, including public broadcasting, and block granting several programs, such as Medicaid, housing and food stamps, to the states. However, he would walk away from a deal with Democrats offering a 10:1 ratio of spending cuts to tax hikes.

He gave the impression that he would support spending-based stimulus, saying that the recovery was slow partly because we had "a stimulus plan that was not as well-directed as it should have been."

On Social Security, he said in the 4th debate, "Under no circumstances would I ever say, by any measure, it's a failure," because there are "tens of millions of Americans who live on Social Security." He made similar points again in the 5th and 6th debates. In the 16th debate, he said he would keep Social Security the way it is for those 55 and older. For the rest of us, he would apply two different inflation adjustments, a lower one for the rich and a higher one for everyone else. He would also raise the retirement age "a year or two," but for the most part would keep the system in place the way it is today.

Other Economic Policies

The Fed: He would not reappoint Bernanke, and believes the Fed should be less independent and have more Congressional oversight. But contrary to Ron Paul, he argued in the 5th debate that "we need to have a Fed… because if we don't have a Fed, who's going to run the currency, Congress?"

Housing: He wants to block grant federal housing programs to the states. In the 9th debate, he said we have a housing crisis because government was too involved in housing, and that when government is the problem, more government is not the solution. However, in the 18th debate, he added that he wanted to "help people see if they can't get more flexibility from their banks," although he didn't say how he would use government to make that happen.

Poverty: He wants a personal unemployment account system rather than the current unemployment benefits system. He wants most anti-poverty programs to be run at the state level through block grants, specifically mentioning food stamps, Medicaid and housing programs. 

Pro-Market Quotes

In the 13th debate, asked what industries will create the most jobs in the next few years, he says, "The free market will decide that; government won't."

In the 17th debate, he said, "My view is, capitalism works. Free enterprise works."

Anti-Market Quotes

In the 18th debate, he said, "Markets have to have regulation to work-- you can't have everybody open up a bank in their garage."

In the 20th debate, he said, "That's the nature of what it is when you lead an organization or a state. You come to Congress and you say, these are the things we need."

Friday, May 4, 2012

Mitt Romney on Foreign Policy

Now that Newt Gingrich has officially dropped out of the race, only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul remain. Paul up to this point has only gotten about 80-90 delegates depending on who's counting, while Romney has some 840. For all that I dislike Mitt Romney, the Republican nomination is now pretty much settled.

Now that we're entering the general election phase of the campaign, with Romney as the Republican standard-bearer, I think it would be useful to revisit the positions he took during the primary debates. My vote, at this point, is far from certain, and just as I used this blog to decide my vote in the primary, I will also be using it to decide my vote in the general election. While it's possible some or all of Romney's positions in the primary will be Etch-a-Sketched away soon, I think this is a good enough place to start.

My original coverage of the debates can be found under the debate tag and the 2012 primaries tag. Romney attended most of the debates, with the exception of the first, the Thanksgiving Family Forum and of course the one-on-one Gingrich debates with Cain and Huntsman. All my coverage of Mitt Romney himself, which is mostly just the debates so far, can be found under the Mitt Romney tag.

Over the 19 debates, Romney took lots of positions on lots of different issues, so I'm splitting this up into multiple entries. This one covers foreign policy, including immigration, trade, defense and policies toward some specific countries and regions.

Immigration

In the 3rd debate, he said, "We are a nation of immigrants. We love legal immigration." In the 8th debate, he said, "I think every single person here loves legal immigration." But only twice in 19 debates did he talk about encouraging legal immigration, once in the 3rd debate and later in the 11th, both in the context of high-skilled immigrants. For the most part, when Romney talks about immigration, he talks about discouraging illegal immigration. Unfortunately, discouraging illegal immigration by making legal immigration easier doesn't seem to have occurred to him. He focuses entirely on securing the border with a fence and lots of federal agents, and making it harder to hire illegal immigrants.

As for illegal immigrants who are already here, he says in the 19th debate, "Our problem is 11 million people getting jobs that many Americans, legal immigrants, would like to have." In early debates he held that any kind of path to legality, never mind citizenship, amounts to amnesty; later, in the 18th debate, he supported allowing illegal immigrant children to gain citizenship through military service. He would encourage self-deportation by requiring immigrants to present legal-status cards to be hired (and, since the absence of such a card would imply you're an illegal immigrant, the requirement for such a card would also necessarily extend to citizens). He mentions this card multiple times, in the 13th, 17th, 18th and 19th debates.

Trade

Mitt's trade policy leaves a lot to be desired. In the 3rd debate, he called our trade partners our "opponents," and I wasn't the only one to notice. In the 5th and later debates, he substituted "the other guys" for "opponents," but the sentiment still clearly remained. His primary trade policy is to "crack down on cheaters like China," which he mentioned, often with those exact words, in the 6th, 7th, 9th, 10th, 14th, 16th, 17th and 19th debates.

He did talk about expanding trade, but far less often than cracking down on China, and always in the context of "open[ing] up markets for our goods," as he said in the 14th debate. He seems to hold a typical mercantilist philosophy, where exports are good but imports are bad. Anything China or other countries do to encourage American imports should be punished, and the only goal of free trade agreements is to encourage American exports.

Defense

He opposes all cuts to defense spending, preferring cuts to entitlements and Obamacare. In fact, he wants to increase military spending, in particular by building more ships for the Navy (which he mentioned in the 13th, 18th and 20th debates) and recruiting an extra 100,000 troops (which he mentioned only once, in the 13th debate).

Specific Countries/Regions

China: Most of Romney's policy towards China focuses on trade, particularly "cracking down" on them for cheating. He promised in the 7th debate to issue an executive order on "day one" labelling China a currency manipulator, and to initiate action against China at the WTO.

Afghanistan: His Afghanistan policy is most charitably described as continually evolving. In the 2nd and 3rd debates, he preferred a timetable for withdrawal established by the generals in Afghanistan. In the 10th, he was fine with Obama's 2014 timetable for the general withdrawal, but not the September 2012 withdrawal of the surge troops. In the 11th, he said he wanted to keep the surge troops in Afghanistan until December 2012, and keep "ten thousand or so" troops in Afghanistan after 2014. In the 14th debate, he said he didn't yet have enough information to say when he would withdraw the troops from Afghanistan.

Iran: He is absolutely opposed to Iran getting nuclear weapons, going so far as to say in the 20th debate that re-electing Obama would lead to Iranian nukes being used against Americans, and that a Romney Presidency was the only way to prevent that. He said he would "of course" go to war "if all else fails" (in the 10th debate) and that Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz would "of course" be an act of war (in the 18th debate). He also wanted "crippling sanctions" against Iran in the 10th and 11th debates, and in the 14th criticized Obama for not supporting the Iranian protestors in 2009.

Iraq: Before going back into Iraq, he would want to "require significant, dramatic American interests" to be at stake, and said he would outline a specific endgame in terms of what would qualify as success.

Syria: In the 10th debate, he said, "Of course, it's time for the Assad dictatorship to end," but in the 11th said, "This is not the time for a no-fly zone over Syria."

Israel and Palestine: In the 19th debate, responding to a question from a self-identified Palestinian-American Republican, Romney said, "The best way to have peace in the Middle East is not for us to vacillate and to appease, but is to say, we stand with our friend Israel. We are committed to a Jewish state in Israel. We will not have an inch of difference between ourselves and our ally, Israel."

Europe: In the 7th, 9th and 16th debates, he opposed a direct bailout to Europe, saying they are big enough to solve their own problems. He would, however, be willing to provide assistance through the IMF and World Bank, and hinted he would bail out American companies affected by Europe's problems.

Canada: In 19 debates, Romney mentioned our largest trading partner and the country with which we share the world's largest land border once, and even that was indirectly through his support for the Keystone XL pipeline in the 17th debate.